Current Security Threats in India: Short Analysis

Recall what happened in past …. 

• Attack in courts in UP

• Attacks in railway stations

• Attack on hospitals?

• Markets as targets.

• Army camps have been targeted.

• Bus-stands attacked. 

• Mosques and temples were targeted.

• Past Maoists attacks…

National Security: 

Conventional Major Threats: India provably is the only country in the world with proven peace-loving credentials, having not attacked any country ever in its known history yet being victim of terrorism ever since its independence! It has very valiantly and successfully addressed following conventional threats since many decades -

• Terrorism and Insurgency 

• Threats from Pak ISI

• Pak Espionage efforts

• Infiltration

• Religious fundamentalism & Communalism

Religious Fundamentalism & Communalism: 

Legacy of the past: Even though “Hindu, Muslim, Sikh, Isai – Aapas main hai Sab Bhai Bhai” has not been very successful, the Indian Society has shown remarkable tolerance and maturity in last decade and communal tensions have been under check. The hot-spots of communal violence such as Agra, Meerut, Moradabad or Lucknow - all in UP have been peaceful. However it should not indicate that we have forgone and forgotten our religions, but, provable we have learnt to co-exist as long as others are not stepping over my religion!  Fewer communal flare-up also shows that with the advancement of reliable communication network, faster mode of transport and with ‘establishment’s will power’ the communal flare-ups are effectively addressed and professionally controlled. Credit can be given to better policing and prompt administrative actions!

• Large number of states affected.

• Fundamental organizations aiding to communal divide.

• Good News & Bad News – 

o there is a decline in communal violence.

o Castism on increase. Intolerance high!

Terrorism & Militancy Impacting Homeland Security: 

• Pan-Islamic terrorism

• J & K militants

• NE insurgent groups

• Left Wing Extremists

• Pan-Islamic & pro-Pak outfits spreading arc of violence to hinterland

Left Wing Extremism:

Past Maoists attacks…

Maoists’ killing average is 3 persons in every 2 days…

This average is higher than that of J&K…Should we not be concerned?

There are approx. 35 groups. CPI (Maoist) is the most prominent & belligerent group and collectively affect more than 223 districts in 20 states. In other words 92,000 KM is under their control with more than 2000 police stations. It also means that 35% population in 40 % area is under their effective control. Max affected states by Maoists are Chhattisgarhi, AP, Jharkhand, Orissa, Bihar, WB, and Maharashtra. They have been traditionally targeting security forces, economic infrastructure and other symbols of Govt.’s might. Establishing urban bases since 2009, there have been more than 1783 incidents of damages to economic infrastructures costing hundreds of crore. Their mission statement used to be “Pashupati to Tirupati….create red corridor!” This objective has since reportedly been achieved.

   

Merger & Acquisition by Islamic Terrorist Groups:

Distinct inputs on Al Qaeda running a separate terror module in India. Ayman Al-Zawahari has been pushing his Indian Agenda more aggressively since emergence of IS fearing that he is losing out influence in its traditional stronghold. The home grown terror outfit IM is making efforts to go global and establish strong links with groups like Al Qaeda, Taliban and Hizbul Tahrir. There is also evidence of Al Qaeda keeping a close watch on activities in India.

Al-Qaeda plans final jihad for India: 

Intel report points to terror recruitment drive targeting Nation's Muslims. Tahrik-e-Taliban Pakistan has been supporting this drive. Having largest concentration of Kafirs (Hindus), India becomes the logical target in which the second largest Muslim population in the world is considered to be potential and natural ally by all the outfits of the likes of TTP, Al-Qaeda and IS. Thus if the Last Crusade and the Final Battle for Islamic Supremacy will need to be fought it will be Ghazwa-e-Hind!  

Islamic State of Iraq & Syria:

ISIS has designs on India (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) & has global ambitions and aims to create an Islamic World Dominion of which even India would be a part. World dominion map by the outfit had parts of north-west India, including Gujarat, shown as part of the Islamic state of Khorasan, a caliphate. Outfit is being touted as the most efficient, organized, dangerous and ambitious terror outfit in the world. http://themuslimissue.wordpress.com/2014/06/25/isis-caliphate-map-reveal-india-as-one-of-their-upcoming-targets/

New trends in Terrorism:

Cyber Threats: 

India's critical infrastructure will always remain vulnerable to cyber-attacks, as is the case with all countries. A government official, privy to NTRO's analysis and speaking on condition of anonymity, told India Today that of the 10,000 infected Indian computers at the time, 15 were located at what are called 'critical infrastructure' facilities. These included the Gujarat and Haryana electricity boards and an ONGC offshore oil rig. As almost all the Infrastructure establishments use SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) Software, its vulnerability will be through ‘Stuxnet’ – a malware designed to sabotage the facilities / projects using SCADA and may suffer sabotage by disgruntled insiders, acting individually (http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/stuxnet-cyber-war-critical-infrastructure-of-india-ntro/1/216107.html). The idea to use a cyber-weapon to cause the damage equivalent of a conventional air strike was the brain child of General James E. Cartwright who presented it to President Bush. 

Behind failure of INSAT 4B – July 2010 China is strongly suspected. (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/LJ09Ad01.html). http://www.patheos.com/blogs/drishtikone/2010/10/cyber-war-between-china-and-india-stuxnet-insat-4b-attacks-and-indias-own-operating-system/

Arial Threats: 

USA used UAVs in Pak against Taliban in tribal areas (Predators and Reapers of CIA killed more than 2000 militants and numbers of civilians is hotly debated). UAVs are aplenty for Pak to use against India. Imagine if these are used against India which results in mayhem and creates chaos? 

Can these be used by terrorists?  Proliferation may result in this weapon system being available to terrorists and insurgent groups. This will prove to be nightmare to security professionals’ world over. There have already been many incidents in European countries where UAVs have been reportedly used by miscreants. 

Given the types of disputes that exist internationally, the likely settings for use of armed drones are endless. In future we may face scenario in which rogue countries, non-state players and terrorists may use UAVs to settle scores or score their dominance. Following scenario emerge out of this UAV hypothesis – 

• China could dominate South Asia, South East Asia and Central Asia.

• Countries like India & Pakistan could carry out strikes across disputed borders.

• India could use it for “hot pursuit Strike” against terrorists in POK.

• Russia could use drones after militants in Caucasus.

• Based in Afghanistan Al-Qaida or based in Baluchistan the IS strikes strategic assets in India.